University of Southern California Trojans at University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The Preview

This game needs little introduction.  It is perhaps the greatest rivalry in college sports, with no conference affiliation or in-state feud to sustain it, just a quest for continued excellence and national titles on both sides.  The fact the rivalry has lost some of its luster in recent years also needs little explanation as, save for one fantastic game in 2005, the Irish have been little more than a speed bump for the Trojans as they roll to top five finish after top five finish.  If Charlie Weis and Jimmy Clausen want their Notre Dame careers to take the next step, they need to win this game.  Considering how the last few games have gone (the Irish haven't scored a touchdown in two years during two rather humiliating contests), there is some work to do.

Irish Defense vs. Trojan Offense

Clausen vs. Pete Carroll's defense gets all the headlines, so let's start on the other side, with Matt Barkley squaring off against Jon Tenuta's defense.   Barkley beat out Aaron Corp and Mitch Mustain to become starting quarterback out of camp and is undefeated in that role, but the offense revolves around a meat grinder of a running game, with five monsters blowing giant holes in the defense for a variety of tailbacks.  With Stafon Johnson still recovering from that awful throat injury, all-world recruit Joe McKnight is the featured back, a dazzling player more than capable of catching the ball out of the backfield.  McKnight is the consummate home run hitter, and helping to clear the way is one of the bigger x-factors in the game, Stanley Havili.  There are few fullbacks in the country that are capable of taking out a middle linebacker on one play and splitting out to wide receiver and catching a fifty-one yard fly route on another like Havili did against Cal.  Allen Bradford will spell McKnight, and depending on CJ Gable's health, you may see him or Marc Tyler get a few touches over the course of the afternoon. With Anthony McCoy a capable blocker and pass-catcher at tight end, the Irish will have to be wary of the passing game even when Southern Cal goes to a power running formation. 

The aptitude of the Trojan running game raises an interesting question: Do you sell out to stop the run, loading up the box and sending in a variety of run blitzes, or do you respect Barkley's arm?   Notre Dame Stadium was as loud as any venue in the world in 2005, but I'm not sure how rattled Barkley will be after leading a fourth quarter comeback in the Horseshoe.  He hasn't been asked to do a whole lot, but he's been absurdly competent and has the arm to make any throw the Trojans ask of him.  If the Irish front seven can't at least put a dent in the Trojan rushing attack, then there isn't much of a chance of slowing this offense.  If there are eight or nine in the box, Barkley is going to play action and find Williams, or the returning Ronald Johnson, or McKnight, or Havili, or one of the talented tight ends.  I wish it were more complicated than that, but I don't think Barkley is going to lose this game for the Trojans if the Irish drop it into his lap. Perhaps that's a strategy you have to try, but I don't think it will end well.

If the Irish can limit big plays - a tall task against an offense like USC possesses - there's a chance the Trojans shoot themselves in the foot trying to string together long drives.  They have been awful on third downs, not particularly disciplined when it comes to penalties and have a penchant for putting the ball on the ground (which is one reason Washington pulled off the upset, along with Barkley and Taylor Mays missing the game).

This Irish defense has had issues, yes - that's perhaps the understatement of the season - but there have been flashing moments of brilliance.  A good Purdue offense was held scoreless for nearly three quarters.  Washington's offense only mustered three first half points after their opening drive.  There have been massive breakdowns at horrible times, yes, but this team has the potential - the coaching, the recruits, the motivation, the home crowd - to stop the Trojans.  It will take everyone playing at their peak, but the Trojans have been slowed before, and this Irish defense has stood up to some talented offenses when need be.  If they don't wrap up the speed merchants who are going to be getting the ball most of the game, be prepared for another game like 2008, or 2007, or 2003, or 2004...

Irish Offense vs. Trojan Defense

When it's strength versus strength - Weis' offense versus Carroll's defense- something will have to give.  As I wrote about earlier in the week, neither team has played a unit anywhere near the caliber of the one they'll be facing off against tomorrow.  A lot of Irish fans seem to want to establish the run first, but lining up in the I-formation and pounding the Trojans might resemble a suicide mission.  Their defensive line is deep and talented, and their linebackers can cover ground on anything going outside.  When the Irish run, it seems like a fine idea to keep the Trojans spread out with three or four wide and use the strength of the Notre Dame offensive line - Robinson, Olsen and Stewart - to pop some draws up the middle.  If the Trojan front isn't as formidable as it seems (and it seems awfully damn formidable), then adjust and take a few more cracks at them.  However, I have no desire to start the game with an I-formation and a two yard loss just so some fans get their fullback fix.  (That being said, welcome back, James Aldridge.  We need all hands on deck for this.)

Jimmy Clausen is the best player on the team, and while the Irish need balance, they're also going to need a Herculean effort from their QB1.  We can pine about how this game would be different with Michael Floyd, but he's a few weeks from returning and Clausen will just have to make do with the tremendous talent remaining at the skill positions.  Golden Tate will draw a lot of attention from the Trojan defense, but Weis has been playing a shell game with him since Floyd's injury, and I don't see him suddenly making it easy to bracket his main playmaker.  Kyle Rudolph will face some athletes who are more than capable of matching up with him, but he's already shown he can come through when it matters.  My primary concern is the continued lack of a definite answer at the second wide receiver position.  Whether it's a consistent rotation or one standout performer, someone is going to need to give Clausen somewhere to go when Mays is blanketing Rudolph and a double team has latched onto Golden.

The Trojan pass rush is among the best in the nation, and if Paul Duncan and Sam Young don't seal the edges to protect their quarterback, this offense is going to look like it did in the lights of the Coliseum last year.  If I were Weis, I would lean on the no-huddle spread.  Not a hurry-up, but simply getting to the line in an effort to limit USC's substitutions, which will in turn limit the effectiveness of that tremendous defensive line depth.   Quick drops, quick reads and keep them guessing.  Toss in some pro formation and wildcat to keep things interesting, but the Weis offense has always been at its best when it's spread out, in a rhythm and keeping the defense off balance.  This will obviously be impossible if there are a flurry of false start and illegal motion penalties, so it would be nice if those were at a minimum.

The Trojan defense hasn't given up a passing touchdown all season and Mays gives the cornerbacks an ability to press up and take chances, but if Clausen can't effectively move the ball through air, the Irish have little chance.  He'll need some help from his running backs, but the biggest match-up on the field is how Clausen deals with the pressure, reads Carroll's coverage and finds the correct option.  He was 11 for 22 for 41 yards and two interceptions last year, but that Jimmy is long gone.  The 2009 Jimmy Clausen is up for this challenge, and I think he'll respond well to it.

Inane ramblings and a vague prediction

Over the past five years, I think I've been respectful of - perhaps even deferential to - the Trojans.  They've been the class of college football in the 21st century, continually finishing at the top of the polls and one amazing Vince Young performance away from seven straight Orange/Rose Bowl wins, with victories in Lincoln, Columbus, Auburn, South Bend, Fayetteville, Charlottesville and Landover (against Virginia Tech) thrown in just for fun.  I almost never feel good about an Irish game going into it, and especially not against the Trojans, but I find myself oddly at peace about this clash.  (There's a very good chance that I've just accepted the fact that if Notre Dame loses this game, the majority of Irish literature I read daily on the internet will become unbearable.  As you read on, do not discount this fact that I'm just looking at this whole thing through shamrock-colored glasses because I've experienced the alternative and it's too unbearable to contemplate.) 

As I've stated all week, these men of Troy do not jump off the screen at you like some of their past versions.  They are obviously dripping with talent, but it's raw, and it's beatable.  Washington already knocked them off.  Ohio State was very close.  The rest of their opponents were either tin cans or a Cal team that was still trying to get its torso back in order after Oregon had ripped its heart out the week prior.  People are correct to say this is a giant test for the Irish, but they're downplaying what it means to the Trojans.  It won't have any effect on their Rose Bowl chances - the trip to Autzen on Halloween will most likely decide that - but as far as national championships go, there are no more toe stubbings available for the men of Troy.

Of course, Notre Dame and Charlie Weis have considerably more to prove, as there are still plenty of questions after dodging raindrops to a 4-1 open to the season.  The Irish lost to the only team with a winning record they've played, and barely survived against a slate of mid-tier Big and Pac Ten teams.  But every game, they show off something new that gives fans a little bit of hope.  Against Michigan, it was finding two key touchdowns and a necessary pick to rally from an eleven point fourth quarter deficit.  Against Michigan State, it was recovering from the loss of their best weapon on offense and another fourth quarter hole in front of a home crowd that was more anxious than supportive.  The next week it was domination that slipped away due to a couple poor defensive possessions, but Clausen-to-Rudolph fixed everything.  Then there was goal line stand after goal line stand against Washington, the reemergence of Robert Hughes, the ridiculous production of Golden Tate, and again, Clausen-to-Rudolph.

Everyone wanted this team to just be great from the word go in September, but teams usually can't just flick a switch.  You have to learn greatness, and more importantly, earn it.  This squad bottomed out in November of 2008, with the losses to Pitt, Boston College, Syracuse and Southern Cal.  Perhaps it was in Hawaii, or the practices in the cold of the South Bend winter before, that made them look like a completely different team as they mauled the Rainbow Warriors.  It's a look in the eye that hasn't faded since.  They kicked the crap out of Nevada, punched Michigan in the mouth repeatedly with Armando Allen, then showed tremendous guts in three straight games where lesser teams would have just said "You know what?  We're losing.  We'll put it together and go get them next week."  The offense is a well-oiled machine, led by the best passer in the country who has a support system that has him in ideal conditions to earn that rating.  The defense has the horses to slow up Troy, and for the first time in a few years, there's a placekicker that inspires confidence when he walks onto the field

Then you have the intangibles, and the mounting frustration of being on the wrong side of a beat down every season.   There's a west coast quarterback who could have followed in the path of two recent Heisman winners in his own backyard but didn't, and has gotten his ass handed to him the last two years for that decision.  There's a freshman receiver playing against his hometown school who wants to show them that he also made the right choice, and a freshman linebacker who'd love nothing more than the same thing. No matter how long these guys have been on this team - three months or going on five years - they've never beaten USC.  Most of them have never even been close, and for the few fifth year seniors who started to storm the field like the rest of us in 2005, they have to have a burning desire to just take back control of this series and get the respect they want.

Since the dazzling 2005 offense moved on, games like the Rose Bowl against Penn State where the Trojans storm out to a giant lead are the exception, not the rule.  The way USC wins is by slowly grinding you, continually throwing haymakers on both sides of the ball until you just break down and end up on the other side of a three touchdown loss.    Normally it's a touchdown here and a field goal there and next thing you know some freak tailback is taking a wheel route seventy yards for a score and you immediately realize there's no way your favorite is coming back.  They have the swagger and the confidence that no matter what the situation is, they'll make a play and win because hey, they're USC.  For the first time in a long while, Notre Dame has a little bit of that same confidence.  It's not a confidence where they can slip n' slide on the sideline four days before a giant rivalry game, but it's growing.  There is no doubt that the Irish have to play great to win, and they will need some breaks and a little bit of luck along the way.  But - and this is a little different from the past few seasons - they have shown over the last six games that greatness is attainable.  Maybe it's not there consistently yet, but the flickers are there.

If USC has any lapses, like trailing 3-0 against San Jose State after the first fifteen minutes, Notre Dame will have points on the board.  They have to have points on the board after the first quarter.  They need touchdowns, not field goals, and need to continue the trend of doing a relatively good job of protecting both the ball and their quarterback.  The numbers tell you the USC defense is good, and I don't doubt that it can consistently deal out some pain, but they have not had to deal with a quarterback like Clausen yet.  (Locker is good, but he's still learning Sarkisian's system and hiccups were inevitable, like at Stanford.  Pryor is still a mess and Riley looked like a deer in the headlights from his initial drive-ending pick on.)  If the Trojans can't slow down the Irish, then the pressure goes onto Barkley.  He's been calm, cool and collected up until this point, but he's also been either been out in front or in low-scoring slugfests in his other four starts.  How will he respond to a shootout, on the road, in front of a crowd that's ready to burst with another chance like 2005?  (Probably pretty well, but it's a potential factor that could lean towards the Irish.)

I loathe making predictions and have no idea how things will go Saturday, but all I can say, for really the first time this season and for the first time in years against Southern Cal, is that I like our chances.  I will most likely end up eating these words come darkness tomorrow, but for now, I am at peace.  Backs are against the wall, echoes are awakened and there are seven years of pent-up frustration that need to be released at some point.

October 17th around 3:30pm seems like as good as time as any to begin.

Go Irish, Beat Trojans.