Notre Dame's Season So Far: Brian Kelly is Under Fire, But Does it Matter?

I thought this was going to be easier.  I wrote at various points in the offseason that "Talent + Successful Coaching = Winning."  It seemed so easy at the time, but as always, you get sucked into the offseason talk of "This guy looks great" and the "Why not us?" and can't clearly see all of the potential problems.  On top of those obvious potential problems (new quarterback in a new system, safeties, outside linebackers, defensive line depth), a whole heap of additional troubles have accrued over the season so far.

The losses to Navy and Tulsa are as bad as Notre Dame has seen, and goodness, there have been a lot of terrible losses over the past decade.  Navy was a failure of scheme on defense and of poor decision-making at quarterback on offense, the Middies complete confidence in their system embarrassing the Irish in East Rutherford.  The Tulsa game was so much weirder, with scores on a blocked extra point, a punt return, a tipped bubble screen interception return and a hook and ladder.  Notre Dame played most of the game without their starting quarterback, didn't give up a defensive touchdown after the initial Tulsa drive and then found themselves within field goal range as the clock ticked down.  And of course this entire game was played with the tragic passing of a Notre Dame student hanging over the entire Stadium.  Not an ideal position for any team.

If David Ruffer gets an opportunity to kick that field goal and makes it (and I was very much in the "Let's get more yardage" camp, not because of a lack of faith in Ruffer, just that if anyone was due for a soul-sucking miss, it was the guy who had been so perfectly fantastic all season), are people freaking out as much as they are now?  The "Okay, this is rock bottom" and "Brian Kelly will never win at Notre Dame" posts and tweets started dribbling out late Saturday afternoon, followed by false prophets touting that they know the way to fix things if you just trust them.  Not an ideal position for any fan base.

This program was broken, and there is no easy quick fix, despite what many of us hoped.  An immediate turnaround won't come from Brian Kelly, and likely not from anyone else either.  This was a team that won sixteen games in three years, then lost its best two players to the draft.  It was learning its third new defensive system in as many years, and a brand new offensive scheme with a quarterback with very limited experience, along with youth along the lines.  By the end of the first quarter against Tulsa, the Irish were down their opening day starters at quarterback, running back, tight end, wide receiver, nose tackle and inside linebacker.  It's almost silly when you lay it all out and consider the amount of experience that went down with Ian Williams, Armando Allen and Kyle Rudolph, along with the exciting potential of Dayne Crist, Theo Riddick and Carlo Calabrese.  Not an ideal position for any coach 

Yet despite these losses, Notre Dame battled on Saturday.  I realize it was Tulsa, a team that was totally overmatched talent-wise, but it was a team comfortable in their system with a prolific offense playing a game they considered the biggest in their school's history.  There's Tommy Rees, flinging it all over the yard*, to sophomores Tyler Eifert, Roby Toma and Cierre Wood, along with freshman TJ Jones.  There's sophomore Manti Te'o, always all over the place, and freshman Kona Schwenke in his first career game recovering a big fumble.

* I understand the criticism of Kelly throwing the ball that many times with his back-up quarterback, but Tulsa was the worst team in the country in defending the pass and it's not like the Irish running game has been particularly inspiring the last couple weeks.  Whether it was the inability to pick up three inches last week against Navy or a pulling guard and running back allowing a single tackler to stuff a third down conversion on Saturday, I don't think Notre Dame is going to win many games relying on their rushing attack.

Again, these are small battles in a greater game that was lost, but if you want to break it down, aren't all of the games in 2010 just learning experiences as we try to get the program on a positive trajectory?  You would think a fan base that saw Weis and Willingham start off so strongly and fizzle wouldn't be fazed by a slow start (hey, let's try this the other way!), but everyone wants their oompa loompa now.  It's not like this is me just trying to be overly positive just to be contrarian towards the wailing masses, as I did write this prior to the Purdue game:

Wins and losses are important, obviously, but I want to see a team that's better in November than it is in September and one that's better in 2011 than it is in 2010.  Kelly is about a long-term fix for a program that needs it, and getting caught up in individual results in his inaugural season will do nothing but drive fans crazy.

Well, it's November now.  And granted, it will be difficult to really judge this team versus the one that played in September when you're going to be down so many key players, but we can still evaluate.  The remaining three games are all intriguing tests in different ways:

• Utah: A team that could be undefeated next Saturday, totally confident in its system, capable of winning on enemy soil (Michigan in Ann Arbor, Alabama in New Orleans) and with success over the past decade Notre Dame fans would punt puppies for.  But they also could be a bit of a paper tiger - we'll find out more Saturday in their game with TCU - and the Irish will be coming off a bye.
• Army (n): A neutral site game against a team that would have been a multiple touchdown underdog earlier in the season, but after Notre Dame's complete meltdown against Navy's option, could pose serious problems in a unique environment.  The Irish last lost to Army in 1958, so yeah, this is sort of a must win.
• At Southern Cal: Notre Dame last defeated the Trojans in 2001.  USC is on probation and can't go to a bowl game, so this will be one of their last chances in the 2010 season to make a statement.  If you think the pressure is on Brian Kelly, if the Trojans stumble the next couple of weeks, there could be some serious heat on the seat of Kelly's first-year opponent, Lane Kiffin.

But here's the thing: Even if Notre Dame loses out, Brian Kelly isn't going to be fired, because coaches don't get fired after one year.  So while I'll certainly be nearly catatonic following that hypothetical Army loss - but in New York City, so at least the bars will be open late to drink away the memories - there is little chance it matters.  Kelly's future will be decided in how this team performs in years two and three, so all of your letter-writing, non-donating and calling for Lou Holtz to step in as interim coach - something I've read on the same message board every season since 2007 - is not going to amount to much.  You can generally tell what you have with a coach by his second or third year, while anyone can look good or bad when the sample size is a scant nine games.

Win-loss record wasn't the most important thing going into the season, and it's not the end-all and be-all now.  Do I want to see the team win every week?  Absolutely, but even more than that, I want to see this team win every year, and there's work to be done to get to that point.  Players need to be prepared, they need to buy into the system and they need to believe in themselves and Brian Kelly.  As far as fans go, they can tune out, get mad or calmly observe, but it is not going to matter.  Kelly is going to be the coach for the next couple years, and while I may have faith and you may doubt, it's not going to do you any good to get worked up about it.  This is going to be a process, and as soon as Notre Dame fans accept that there is no magic bullet that will thrust them back into consistent greatness, the easier it will be to accept.