Notre Dame at Michigan State: The Preview

It's usually tough to get a read on the Michigan State game, and this year is no different.  I think this annual trouble has two causes, neither of which the Irish - or those that attempt to write about them - can really avoid.  The first is that Michigan State almost always falls after Michigan, meaning there is some sort of emotional hangover from a big victory or soul-crushing defeat that leaves you wondering how the Irish will respond.  Notre Dame has knocked off Michigan State after losing to Michigan (06, 09) and lost to Michigan State after beating Michigan (05, 08).  (The Irish lost to both Michigan and Michigan State in 2007, along with nearly everyone else on their schedule.)  Sometimes the team plays terribly and well all in the same game against the Spartans, best evidenced by the epic schizophrenic 2006 monsoon game, where the Irish trailed 17-0 after one, 31-14 at the half and 37-21 after three quarters before rattling off nineteen straight for a 40-37.  Just looking at the box score gives me a mild panic attack.

The other reason it could be tough to get a feel is that Michigan State hasn't played many teams of note by the time they face the Irish, so the data points are a little fuzzy.  You don't want to just go off the prior season and preseason magazines because there's new data, but the last three seasons Michigan State's pre-Notre Dame opponents were Florida Atlantic (twice), Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Montana State and Cal.  How much should preseason theories be kicked to the curb because the Spartans absolutely gutted Western Michigan and FAU the last two weeks?  I have no idea, and that's what makes Saturday night so interesting.

The one thing we know for sure is that we're going to see a different style of offense than what the Irish faced the first two weeks.  Kirk Cousins had a nice little season last year (over 2600 yards, 60% completion percentage and 19 TDs), but he ran for a total of sixty yards last year, about a quarter of what Denard Robinson put up in a single game on Saturday or just about double the length of Robert Marve's touchdown run in the opener.  If Notre Dame wants to show that it has a pass rush, this is the team to do it against, with a not particularly mobile quarterback and an offensive line replacing three starters.

Of course to get sacks, the Irish will need to get Cousins into some obvious passing downs, something that won't be easy unless they stop the run.  Edwin Baker and La'Veon Bell have just pounded the opposition thus far, combining for nearly five hundred yards at a 9.5 yards per carry clip.  Obviously the Irish defense will provide a slightly tougher test than anything the Spartans have seen thus far, but that doesn't automatically mean they won't be productive.  Adding to the mayhem is the return of last year's leading rusher Larry Caper, who missed the first two games due to injury.  Cousins hasn't been particularly sharp so far this season (he was just 9-of-17 for 142, a score and a pick against FAU), but he doesn't need to be with pop like that on the ground.  Cousins has also been sacked three times already, so if the Irish can take the run away and Cousins doesn't raise his game to 2009-in-Notre Dame Stadium levels, things could go well.

Notre Dame will need to either contain or just stay away from Keshawn Martin, who had over two hundred all-purpose yards against Florida Atlantic.  The Spartans also return their entire receiving corps from last year save for leader Blair White, but there's talent with BJ Cunningham, Mark Dell and converted-from-quarterback and Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol.  Again, due to Michigan State's success on the ground, none of these guys have been utilized much (Dell is the leader with seven catches, no one else has more than three), but they showed off what they could do during Cousins' three hundred yard day last year.

On the defensive side, the Irish are going to have to work the edges and go deep, because the middle belongs to professional bad-ass Greg Jones.  Jones totaled 154 tackles and 9 sacks last year, and makes a deadly combo with running mate Eric Gordon.  Up front Jerel Worthy anchors things in the middle, and it may be time for Dantonio to unleash William Gholston, a 6' 7" freshman monstar that hasn't had all the bubble wrap taken off of him yet.   The secondary was pretty bad last year, ranking 101^st in defensive pass efficiency, and while they've improved in a limited sample size so far this season (55^th), it's hard to tell much when teams have been forced to throw so much (the Spartans are 9^th in rushing yards per game allowed, 8^th in yards per rush).

I'd like to think that with a healthy Dayne Crist, another week of practice and the motivation of dropping a winnable game to Michigan on their side the Irish will be able to pull this off, but this manages to be both the first night game and the first road game of the season.  I shouldn't be worried about Crist, who played the majority of last year's primetime tilt at Purdue, but he's been off at times this season and I'd like a consistent, dominant performance to right the ship.  On defense, with the way the Irish are tackling, I think they can put this game into Cousins' hands.  Considering we don't know how a Bob Diaco Notre Dame defense handles a more traditional passer, it'll be a learning experience for all involved on Saturday night.

All I want to see is improvement from game-to-game, but let's be honest: A 2-1 record would make all of our lives considerably easier than 1-2 with Stanford, Boston College and Pittsburgh looming.  Go Irish, Beat Spartans, and keep everybody healthy.