Notre Dame Basketball
Irish Wake: Florida State Ends Notre Dame's Season 71-57
This will not be the analysis post. That will come later this week, when everyone has had time to digest what happened and breathe. Some people are questioning Notre Dame's effort in this game, and that seems rather silly. Florida State made a bunch of contested shots. Notre Dame missed a bunch of open ones (along with a bunch of very well-contested attempts from an excellent, tall and nasty Florida State defense). There was some early foul trouble, a furious rally midway through the second half that fell well short and a rim that was continually unkind to the men in white. Notre Dame drew a capable opponent (that had already beaten Duke earlier in the season) and ran into one of the best shooting nights they had all season. The Irish probably contributed to that to some degree, but I really think the defense was solid most of the night.
These last five halves of basketball were not the joyous ride we experienced most of the season. It was like a switch flipped at halftime of the Louisville game, and every possession after that was less enjoyable than all of those prior. It shouldn't ruin how much fun this season was until that point, from the Old Spice Classic victory up up though the Cincinnati evisceration at Madison Square Garden, but it sort of does. I'd ask you to remember all of the great times this team gave you, that had you fist pumping and high-fiving. There were many, although they may feel like a million years ago at the time you read this.
So very sad this evening. And eventually I will be angry, because all of the people who don't follow Notre Dame basketball but love to chime in on how superior they are because they stayed away from it all year will start to talk. A lot to think about, and a lot to go over. No Sweet Sixteen for the Irish. No banner. Nothing really to cling to from an otherwise splendid 27-7 season. There's no reason to think next year's Irish squad - which returns six of the eight rotation players from tonight - won't be competitive again, but it's hard to see them reaching the level of this year's team.
So do whatever you wish to do here. Vent about tonight, toast an enjoyable season or do anything else in between. This isn't how we wanted to go out, but there are nearly 32 other teams saying that exact same thing this weekend, and a host more that wish they had the chance to go down in the NCAA's. A lot of teams have expectations dashed in March, and we are not special in that regard. This team went down swinging tonight, and at some point, that's all you can ask.
Sunday Brunch: A Look at the Florida State Seminoles
Three things jump out at you when you start looking into the Florida State Seminoles. The first is that they play magnificent defense, the best in the country according to KenPom's defensive efficiency stats (and they pass the eye test for anyone who despises those dirty, nasty numbers). The second is that they are very, very big, playing no one shorter than 6'3" and using five players that go 6'8" or better. The third is that their coach Leonard Hamilton is a dead ringer for Bunny Colvin, leading me to believe they he is going to utilize some outside-the-box strategies that aren't appreciated by the Powers That Be at city hall.
Let's look a little closer at the defense, which jumps off the page due to the amount of bright green. Florida State is the best defensive efficiency team in the country, allowing only 86.4 points per 100 possessions (the average is 101.4). They're also the best at effective FG% defense, holding teams to 42.2% shooting (49% average). They're not super-disciplined at protecting the offensive glass or keeping teams off of the line, but as far as not allowing the other team to make shots, no one is better than the Seminoles.
As impressive as those numbers are, it's not like Notre Dame hasn't seen teams capable of defending like them this season. Louisville was 6th in defensive efficiency, Seton Hall was 12th, Cincy was 13th, Syracuse was 16th and Pitt was 17th. Not quite first in the nation, but certainly some capable teams, and the Irish's success rate varied from "effective" (Seton Hall) to "evisceration" (Cincinnati) against those teams. Is Notre Dame going to have difficult scoring against the Noles? Absolutely, because everyone has difficulty scoring on the Noles, but no one has completely shut down the Irish offense yet this season. This will be a classic matchup of strength (number one defense) versus strength (number three offense), which often means the deciding factor is found by looking at both team's weaknesses. And I think that, my friends, may benefit the Irish.
A First Look At The Akron Zips, Notre Dame's First Round Opponent
Name: University of Akron
Location: Akron, OH
Nickname: The Zips. They're named for a type of overshoe and the zipper, which was invented in Akron. Their actual mascot is a kangaroo named "Zippy."
Conference Affiliation: Mid-American Conference (Tournament champs)
Record: 23-12 (9-7)
Fun University of Akron Facts: Founded in 1870 in affiliation with the Universalist Church (a denomination that thought everyone would find salvation after death, with some believing there was no hell at all, which is a very positive way of looking at things), Akron became a state university in 1967. They're known for their polymer research (their old football stadium was called the Rubber Bowl).
Last Tournament Appearance: 2009, where they lost to Gonzaga in the first round. The Zips led that game by six in the second half before falling in a 13-4 matchup.
Notable alumni: Jason Taylor and Jim Tressel both went there, as well as Pete Carroll's favorite son, Charlie Frye. The Black Keys' guitarist Dan Auerbach and Yvette Nicole Brown (Shirley from Community) also attended Akron. Here is a gratuitous Community clip that I really enjoy:
Bobby Huggins coached hoops there in the 1980's, and John Heisman of the trophy fame was their football coach once upon a time.
What about their basketball team?: Akron is ranked 123rd on KenPom, playing at a pace that is exactly the national average (66.7). Some stats that jump out:
Offensive rebounding rate: Akron is really bad at that, ranking 288th in the country.
Getting to the free throw line: They're even worse at that, ranking 304th in FTA/FGA (the ratio of free throw attempts a team takes in relation to the number of shots from the field they take). When you consider that Notre Dame generally doesn't send teams to the line, this does not bode well for the Zips.
Getting shots blocked: Akron is actually really good at this, getting only 6.6% of their shots blocked, good for 14th in the nation.
Turning the ball over: Again, a big positive for the Zips, as they're 39th in the country in turning the ball over. However, when I look at potential Notre Dame opponents, I actually don't mind seeing a low turnover rate. Why is this? Because the Irish force so very few turnovers, I prefer teams be low-turnover/bad shooting percentage on offense. Unless the opposition is just kicking the ball out of bounds or making really stupid passes, Notre Dame is not going to disrupt their offensive flow. If teams are prone to turnovers against pressure, they're not going to face much against the Irish, meaning their overall offensive efficiency will go up just by not being stupid with the ball. If you look at teams that Notre Dame has trouble with defensively, they're almost always squads that have a high turnover percentage because we help them lower it.
3 point FG%: The Zips are actually good at both shooting the ball from distance (60th in the nation) and defending the line (40th). Overall, their eFG% defense is 62nd, which is very solid.
Giving up offensive rebounds: 210th in the country, giving up an offensive rebound on one out of every three possessions.
Sending teams to the line: 179th in the country. When you combine this with the effectiveness of Notre Dame getting to the line, there might be plenty of free points for the Irish available along the way.
Head Coach: Keith Dambrot is in his seventh season as coach of the Zips, taking over the job in 2004 after a few years as an assistant. In the early 90's, Dambrot was head man at Central Michigan when he was dismissed for making a racially insensitive comment. Unable to find a job in the college ranks, Dambrot took over at St. Vincent-St. Mary High School in 1998, meaning that A) He's got some experience with the Fighting Irish and B) He coached LeBron James, which is pretty cool. Here's a profile following Akron's 2009 MAC tournament title written by the great Terry Pluto that's a good look at the path Dambrot took to get to where he is now.
Notable personnel:
Nikolai Cvetinovic is the Zips' leading scorer and possession user, scoring just under 12 points per game. He does his damage inside, having only taken three treys all season, shooting 46% from 2-point range and 73% from the charity stripe, a place he visits at a pretty frequent pace (145th in the country*).
* Just a note on KenPom's player rankings: 145th doesn't seem high, but you have to consider that there are over three hundred college basketball teams that factor into this, and a lot of these rate numbers aren't adjusted for quality of competition. To be 145th in something when you're talking about well over two thousand players in Division I hoops is pretty impressive.
Zeke Marshall is probably the most interesting player on the Zips, a seven-foot sophomore who tossed up a 9 point/13 rebound/9 block performance in the MAC title game. Marshall averages 2.5 blocks per game and is 18th in the country in blocked shot percentage, but he's not a great rebounder (4.8 per game and low percentages) and is woeful from the free throw line (58%). Methinks he might have some trouble guarding Ty Nash if he faces up.
6' 4" junior Brett McClanahan (some great names on this team, if you're paying attention) is the shooter, going 71-of-184 from three on the year, good enough for 38%. 6' 2" senior Steve McNees has taken nearly as many (179), but hit far fewer (57) for a 31.8% average. 6' senior Darryl Roberts also hits it a nice clip (38.8%) on a good amount of attempts (116). 6' 6" senior Brett McKnight is their second-leading scorer at just over ten per game, shooting it well from both two-point range (52%) and behind the arc (39% on 66 attempts). As a whole, the Zips are very balanced offensively, with six players scoring between 8.6 and 11.9 points per game.
A potential bonus for the Zips and trouble area for the Irish could be that a lot of guys on this team were very, very close to tasting NCAA success two years ago. They led Gonzaga at the half with Roberts, McNees and Cvetinovic all starting and McKnight playing twenty minutes off the bench. Roberts was stellar, leading the team with 19 points and hitting 4-of-6 from three. McNees was the opposite, going 0-for-9 from the field in 32 minutes of play, notching only one made free throw. McKnight also struggled, going 1-for-8 with three second half turnovers during the Zags' run to pull away.
The computers say...: KenPom has Notre Dame winning this game 78-61, with a 94% chance of achieving success. The Zips have been there before, but at first glance, it doesn't seem like they have the scoring punch to hang with the Irish, especially considering their inability to get to the line or get second chance points means there will be fewer offensive opportunities. On the other hand, Notre Dame should be able to get to the line and crash the boards, meaning that even if their threes aren't falling, they have a very good chance of advancing.
Ten Thoughts On The Morning After Selection Sunday
Ever wish that more things worked like college brackets? That you could seed everything that way? Top 64 pre-game foods. Top 64 college players. Well, now you can do just that with your friends, with the Allstate BFF Brackets, which takes your 64 top Facebook friends (an algorithm seeds them based on interaction) and seeds them in four regions, exactly like the real tourney. Once the tourney starts, your friends advance with the corresponding seeds – till one is left standing. Check it out at http://apps.facebook.com/bffbrackets/.
Selection Sunday is one of my favorite days of the year - slightly behind Christmas, the first college football Saturday and this coming Thursday - and this year was particularly exciting with Notre Dame clearly in the tournament and in position to make a nice run depending on their draw. As always, the committee did some extremely terrible things that you come to expect. Then nothing changes, and they do more terrible things the next year. Perhaps the biggest mistake they made was doing the mock selections with all of the guys that cover college hoops because instead of going "Man, it must be really tough, these guys are trying hard," you have Rece Davis and Jay Bilas saying "Uh, we've done this before, and they're not following any of the rules they told us to use." Then Gene Smith stumbles in front of the camera and spouts some benign platitudes, and no one attacks him because you have to be gentlemanly.
But then Monday morning comes, and despite someone being pissed about something, everyone (save for the teams that get left out of the tournament) just moves on to being really, really excited. Here are ten preliminary thoughts about the bracket:
1) Let's get the complaining out of the way first: There is no way VCU and UAB should be in the tournament. Colorado's non-conference strength of schedule is hilariously bad, but they have more good wins than a lot of teams with a top eight seed. I also think Harvard has a legitimate gripe as well. The only other thing that really bothers me is the insistence that first round is now the second round and the second round is now the third round. No. Stop it. The Tuesday and Wednesday games are play-in games, and the first round begins on Thursday. Anyone who calls Thursday and Friday's games second round contests needs to be led away from their keyboard or microphone.
2) Before the tournament, I talked about how important matchups were versus seeding. Ohio State is the number one overall seed, yet they are in a nightmare of a bracket once they get to the regional. They'll likely draw a severely-underseeded Kentucky team, and if they get past them, they're looking at Syracuse or North Carolina. I'm a big believer in the Buckeyes, but they could get easily get bounced before the Final Four.
3) Pittsburgh's bracket is really weird, as I think their second and third round games will be significantly tougher than anyone they face in the Elite Eight. Florida as a two seed is probably the worst seeding of a top team, and we've all seen how BYU is struggling without Brandon Davies. Yet to get to the Elite Eight, Pitt will first have to beat Old Dominion, a tournament-tested team that Notre Dame fans are far too familiar with, or Butler, who needs no introduction. If they escape the second round, they could play Kansas State, a team that almost made the Final Four last year or Utah State, a mid-major darling with size and skill that hasn't manage to break through in March yet. Pitt fans are getting a little bit anxious, but I like their chances this year. (Despite a tough second matchup against either Izzo or UCLA in the second round, I would have loved to see Notre Dame in Florida's position as far as a potential Final Four draw goes. Alas.)
Notre Dame A Two Seed in Southwest, Faces Akron in the First Round
The Irish will face the champions of the MAC in the first round. Should they prevail, they will face the winner of Texas A&M and Florida State. Both games will be in Chicago. If they make it further than that, the games will be in San Antonio and could take on Purdue, Georgetown, Kansas or Louisville.
Update: Notre Dame and Akron will be the first game in Chicago, starting at 1:40pm ET on TBS. Enjoy watching hoops while nursing that St. Patrick's Day hangover, folks.
Selection Sunday Open Thread
Put all your comments here, we'll keep it updated as the fun times happen. Lunardi still has Notre Dame as a one seed, but I just don't think the committee will do it.
Update #1: Lunardi was wrong and Duke is the final number one seed. Pitt is in New Orleans, Duke Anaheim.
Update #2: Washington, a team I did not want to play, is in the Newark region, along with Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia, Xavier, Villanova, George Mason and Marquette.
Update #3: Notre Dame is the 2nd seed in the Southwest Region. They play Akron, then would face the winner of Texas A&M and Florida State. Other top seeds in the region are Kansas, Purdue and Louisville.
The Morning After: Looking Ahead to Selection Sunday
I think I'm going to start tuning out when Notre Dame makes the Big East semifinals, because 2007, 2010 and 2011 have all been heartbreakers of the highest degree. Last night was maybe the worst, a sixteen-point lead slowly trickling away, a shot to win at the end of regulation and then a back-and-forth overtime that sputtered out. If Notre Dame won that game, they were more-than-likely a number one seed. Now? We wait.
If you wanted to spin this in a positive way, you could say at least three guys (Hansbrough, Atkins, Nash) had their worst game of the year or something approaching it. The Big East Player of the Year felt challenged, either by Kemba Walker's performance earlier in the evening or by Pitino's defense, and took bad shot after bad shot, hopefully getting them all out of his system. Hansbrough wears his emotions on his sleeve, and while most of this season that swagger has spread to the team in a positive manner, tonight it was on the reasons Notre Dame is could very easily be a number two seed come tomorrow.
Personally, that doesn't bother me too much. A number one seed would have been nice, but with it comes a greater amount of pressure and scrutiny with no guarantee of better matchups. Notre Dame will still start their tournament in Chicago (if there was any question about that, both Purdue and Wisconsin falling in the Big Ten quarters confirmed it). It will still be a crap shoot about who they draw in the second round (8/9 games are not very different from 7/10 matchups in terms of quality). From there, it's a crap shoot the rest of the way, with no giant advantage in any of the regions should the Irish advance that far, although I suppose they had some familiarity with Newark which could help.
However, if you want Notre Dame to get a number one seed, you need to do a few things. Root against Duke and North Carolina (but mainly Duke), and while I'm not sure they have the juice to steal the fourth number one, go against BYU as well. It seems like Duke is the only team that can take our spot, but there appears to be some momentum for the Heels, which is ridiculous with their overall resume. (But not their overall talent level, which is quite good.) After that, it's really just sit and pray. We all have the teams we don't want to see (although I think we'd all agree, avoiding Tom Izzo in March for as long as possible is always good), but we'll have to leave it up to the selection committee to seal our fate.
A few more thoughts from last night, and then I'll leave you to your weekend and a Saturday night - ugh, dammit - without Notre Dame in the Big East championship game.
- What a fantastic effort by Scott Martin. Threes, dunks, boards, assists, steals. He was the driving force in Notre Dame's effort and almost carried them to a win despite...
- While watching the game it certainly seemed like Hansbrough was not playing well, but oh, the box score. 6 turnovers, 3 missed free throws and 3-for-16 shooting. As brilliant as he's been all season, just a lot of poor shots.
- Ty Nash played 21 minutes and got one rebound. Eric Atkins played 13 minutes and had one assist to go with three turnovers. On the other hand, Jack Cooley was great, with six boards, two blocks and a great tip slam in 19 minutes of play. I hope he has himself in shape to play big minutes next year, because he's a shoe-in to replace Nash as long as he's up for the challenge.
- If you wanted to, someone could criticize Brey for his refusal to sit Hansbrough down and get his head cleared, but with the team in foul trouble, sometimes you have to dance with who brung ya. It was also troubling to see him stay committed to the burn, even when the scoring drought grew longer and longer. I realize that Notre Dame wasn't going to win a track meet with the Cards, but they could have made them think twice about pressing with a few quick lay-ups, which they have been getting all season against the press.
- A little disappointed in the crowd. Perhaps the Orange and Huskies fans were just too efficient in their ticket-buying, but I thought there'd be more green present.
- Louisville had nineteen offensive boards. The more I write about this game the more I kind of want to curl up and die. At least we can all do a little early St. Patrick's Day celebrating tomorrow and not have to worry about being coherent for the title game? (I'm grasping here, people.)
Brackets are announced at 6pm ET tomorrow. In all likelihood, Notre Dame will be playing on Friday in Chicago. Should they win their first two games, they could absolutely end up assigned to any of the four regions. We'll of course have you covered with all kinds of analysis as soon as the first opponent is revealed. A Big East banner would have been nice, but there are bigger fish to fry now.
Big East Tournament Quarterfinal Open Thread: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The gentleman in the photo is Yancy Gates, big man for the Bearcats. He's scored in double figures the last six games, with a couple double-doubles thrown in just to show off. Gates has been playing great for a while now, and it will be up to Ty Nash, Carleton Scott and Jack Cooley to keep him from dominating in the paint.
Winner advances to face either Louisville or Marquette. We must defend this half of the bracket from the Conference USA insurgents.
Go Irish, Beat Bearcats.
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